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COVID-19 is resulting in very real human, social and economic impacts. Historically, reduced population mobility during epidemics has had a greater economic impact than the illness itself.
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced some states to impose strict stay-at-home orders that are adversely affecting many industries. This is leading the U.S. economy into a recession that will result in very sharp declines in GDP for H1 2020 and in job losses, particularly in the retail, food & beverage and transportation sectors.
Survey respondents believe that hotel, retail (particularly destination, lifestyle, and entertainment retail that depend upon more than 10 people gathering closer than six feet apart), and resort residential are the segments that are getting hammered now, and likely will take some time to recover.
In 2018, stock markets suffered their worst since 2008. But now several warnings signs are showing red flags in the market – causing some analysts to predict a 70% correction this year.
Multifamily rent collections were expected to be low due to a historic spike in unemployment. However, as of April 19th, 89% of apartment households made a full/partial rent payment, only slightly lower than 2019’s rate of 93%. More residents are choosing to renew their leases instead of vacating, helping preserve property occupancy.
The living sectors are generally viewed to be more resilient in the face of a downturn; however, the different sub- sectors have very different characteristics. Multifamily is usually considered to be the most resilient sector and this is being supported, at least in the short term, by various income-protection schemes.
Do past metrics and experiences matter during a crisis unlike any other? History suggests they do, ultimately.
